Loss Aversion

(A.) You have been given $1,000.00. Now select one of the following;

1. Guarenteed gain of $500.00.
2. Take a coin flip. You call it right you get $1,000.00. You call it wrong and you get nothing.

Which do you choose? (Write it down. Just keeping you honest!)

(B.) You have just been given $2,000.00. Now select one of the following;

1. Gaurenteed loss of $500.00.
2. Take a coin flip. You call right you lose nothing. You call it wrong you lose $1,000.00.

Which do you choose? (You wrote down the first one. Write down your answer for B too!)

Typical Answer (A.) Option A: Sure gain of $500.00.
Typical Answer (B.) Option B: Even chance to lose or gain.

Why is this interesting?

The outcomes are identical for option A (you end up with $1,500.00)

The outcomes are identical for option B (you end up with either $1,000.00 or $2,000.00)

Yet your selection is different...

We are more willing to take a risk to avoid a loss.

We are more conservative in order to lock in a gain.

This is said to be because we feel the pain of a loss much more strongly than the please of an equivalent gain...

... we feel the pain of an equivalent loss twice as strongly as the pleasure of an equivalent gain.

Bend, OR

This past weekend I got to spend Easter outside of the rain shadow of McMinnville and over the pass in the high dessert of Bend. The drive over was clear of snow and the mountains and lakes were beautiful. We got to see a good pack of Elk coming back down the pass as well. We arrived late afternoon, but in tme to hit the trails near the Old Mill district for a shake out fun. It was a very nice change from the same roads we run every day back at school. Dry snow was even a nice change from the persistent soppiness that is the October-to-April rain of the Willamette Valley.

The juniper, pine and sage made for a wide open space very different than the surrounding mountains and forested mountain sides of the Rogue Valley. I am told that the mountains around Bend can be seen on most clear days and are pretty darn impressive, but unfortunately the snow was falling on the mountains and the clouds wouldn't clear enough for us to get a good view in the 48 hours I was there. An additional visit is in order to appreciated the skyline and the transition from rolling grey to green that apparently occurs in the summer months.


The area was really nice and clean and active. Saw really pretty, large homes most everywhere I went and there were lots of shops and nice restraunts all over the place. There were many parks and paths along the river and throughout town. Although Bend is hurting economically, possibly even worse than a majority of the state, store space was pretty much all filled and there was not an large number of for sale signs or empty homes that i noticed, which is encouraging and promising to see.

Besides the change of scenery I was also able to enjoy a huge amount of hospitality and share in a family easter weekend in Bend since I didn't make it down to my own home and family for their festivies. You know that Easter just isn't the same without a hurd of small children under the influence of a large amount of sugar.

I miss my big family holidays a lot so it was really nice to be surrounded by that comfortable and familar experience that is only exists when the familiy comes together. Lots of good company and good food. Made me think about what everyone was doing back home and how much fun Ashley, Hunter, Jayden, Austin and Robby must all be having running around looking for eggs. It made me think about Easter at Belindas and how there would always be the eggs that were hidden way out of our searching capabilities or at our home when we would be finding the tough eggs for weeks after. Funny what you remember.

All in all, it was a really fun trip and a really great weekend. I am very thankful for the hospitality and feeling so welcome in Bend. I am deffinately excited to make another trip to the area, especially if I can work in some time in at the surrounding lakes and mountain trails as it starts to warm up this spring (... it has to get warm eventually right?)

Boulder, CO

As I am packing up my things and makin sure that everything is together for my long day of traveling tomorrow I wanted to take some notes on what happened over the past few days before all of it melds together into one distorted collection of experiences.

Things I learned/saw/noted in Boulder, Co.:

A. - Boulder, CO is a lot like Ashland, OR. It is tucked right up against the mountain and it is gorgeous. However, the mountains are much larger and less green and forested. The mountains are breathtaking, huge and completely distinctive with their jagged rocks and massive size bolting up from the ground. Boulder is so much like Ashland in it's comfortable liberal feel though, it made me homesick to walk down the plaza and through lithia park. Walking on Pearl St. (the equivalent of the Ashland plaza, only much larger and more commercial) you feel like you are right at the base of the towering mountains (the equivalent of mt. Ashland, only the flat irons are much larger and covered with snow and rugged rock formations.)By traveling up Canyon Rd for only 10 or 15 minutes you can climb a 1000s of feet to a plethora of mountain trails and scenic views

B. - A lot of snow can gather even if the ground is wet after it rains, when the sun was out 30 minutes ago and it can accumulate up to a foot deep within several hours time. Additionally, you can get sunburnt from lounging on the warm track and then you can be stuck in a foot of snow the following day and then be doing a tempo workout out in shorts and t-shirt again less than 24 hours later. It can even be 65 and sunny out and there can still be 6 inches of snow piled up on the sidewalk. Additionally, Coloradians don't carry chains although they are forced to drive their compact cars through the snow frequently... for some reason I was laughed at when i asked why not... I still don't see the humor. Also, of interest... Coloradians get excited about rain like Oregonians get excited about snow... it's something unusual and exciting.

C - Altitude isn't that bad... on the track, but the lack of oxygen really hits you hard over an extended tempo workout. I could still hit my 12 x 400's in 80s without too much duress, but trying to hold an up-tempo for 30 minute was a great big challenge. After the first 10 minutes I was in oxygen debt and without the abundance of it surrounding me was forced to force my way through an ugly 20 minutes more. However, at the turn around point when I headed back West, the skyline and the high mountains which stand even higher and stark white just pass the immediate Flat Irons brought my crawl to a shocked stand still... I never really had a true chance of catching my breath anyway with a scene like that. The Rockies are truely gorgeous and are unlike anything I have ever seen... I imagine that the "jaw-drop"/"mind-stop" effect of the Rockies was very similar to that of the Swiss Alps for my dad when he was traveling Europe.






























A couple spots worth seeing in Boulder;

Boulder Creek Path - pretty (and promptly cleared of snow) paved bike/walk running through Boulder West from Canyon Rd and the Flat Irons out East away from the Rockies along the creek. Very Scenic and well kept.
Pearl Street Walking Mall - large walking mall with lots of good eating and shoppings. Some commercial and some unique little "hippie" shops. Very friendly. Lots of people. Lots to see.
Illegal Pete's - Very tasty burritos on the cheap. Nice location on Pearl Street.
The Rib House - Near downtown. Slow smoked ribs, chicken, brisket, turkey, yum! I got a nice dinner sald and a quarter of a pound of moist and delicious smoked turkey for $7.00!! Near downtown.
The Sink - Neat bar/restraunt on "the hill" (near University of Colorado"). Lots of good beers on tap and a funky feel with graffitied walls and low ceilings. Even packed on a Monday night.

After spending weeks trying to sell ad spaces to B&Bs with little to no interest (nearly 300 emails and 100 phone calls) I was really suprised by the instant and effective feedback to a short and simple email and an effective attachment.

Today Holly gave me a task to send a short email requesting clients to take a look at the attached video and consider their budgeting strategy during this economic "repression". The email was only a few lines. There wasn't any large proposition for success or a "you-can't-afford-to-miss-this" offering. The email simply stated,

Hi All,
Here’s a slide show presentation about “Branding in a Recession” that speaks directly to the point being made about advertising even when things are tight.

A major point in that script: Companies that aggressively increased their media advertising expenditures in the last recession had a post-recession market share gain of 2.5 times the average for all businesses. This makes it an important time to consider your advertising budget, your market and your message.

I hope you find this useful.

Just an honest extension of useful information. With no strings or sales pitch attached.

I recently learned in my marketin class that consumers move through a psychological thought process on the way to a sale.

Awareness (gain attention) -->

Interest (persuade to investigate) -->

Desire (from "I like" to "I want" -->

Action (pursue purchase)

From my understanding this should be a highly complex and intriquetly constructed model to manipulate and motivate consumers deliberately along a premeditated path to make a sale. Every step and every aspect must be considered and taylored in order to create a sale.

Within 15 minutes of sending this email we recieved 6 responses with interest in full-priced advertising at the Oregon Wine Press.

How do you explain that? The return rate on cold calls averages around 3%. I have found that my average is much lower. The interest this email generated was huge.

Maybe people just want some honest and genuine information and support?

Maybe this is the "hot-topic" of the time?

Maybe people just wanted proof and a quantified reason to buy?

It could be any one of these or other things, and certainly some combination of many interwoven reasons. I think what this says to me is that there is a lot of value in a personal communication and a personally felt connection.

Below is the attached slide-show. Enjoy.

Branding In A Recession

View more presentations from belkins.

For my mangement process class we were asked to create a list of things we enjoyed doing during a week so that we could translate these things into natural talents that we possess. It was proposed to us that generally people spend so much time trying to improve their weaknesses that they miss out on their areas for the greatest potential improvement; their strengths. We were not asked to forget of disregard our weaknesses but rather to improve them and work on them and also to realize that we can only go so far in trying to force something that really isn't there for us. If we can find a positions that fits our strengths then it isn't really letting our weakness get the best of us, but rather simply positioning ourselves for a happier and more prosperous career and life.

This is an idea proposed by Marcus Buckingham in his book "Now Discover Your Strengths." Below is a youtube video clip of Marcus Buckingham speaking on the Today Show about his ideas, the power of strengths, and how they apply to the recent economy.




The following is the essay that I wrote for this assignment;

Upon logging a list over the last week of acts that created positive feelings of accomplishment and worth that left me feeling motivated and energized I achieved a new awareness of my strengths. This amounted to not simply a checklist of duties and tasks successfully completed, but rather a resume of feats performed with a
feeling of interest and wellbeing. Upon further analysis, these acts were translated as representations of talents that I possess. Next I used these talents to piece together a larger picture from the collection of individual examples. Ultimately, with these newly realized strengths in hand I am prepared to develop and utilize these tools to first discover and then reach my unique and appropriate career and life goals.

When I considered my list of enjoyable tasks it quickly becomes evident that I favor structure. There is a lot of happiness for me in planning, budgeting, and scheduling. I like to log my workouts, do grocery shopping for the week, take orderly and detailed notes from assigned readings, and create an agenda, set a budget, and neatly pack supplies for my weekend trip to the coast. I like to cook a well balanced dinner for my boyfriend, write letters complete with article clippings to my grandma, and give directions to confused campus visitors. I enjoy creating power point slides to explain my position, excel spreadsheets to record my contacts, and design color coordinated to do lists to prepare for the next day. These may sound like boring events to most people. In fact, they sound pretty boring as I reread them as they are listed right here, but when I consider these small acts I also begin to derive a pattern.

I like planning for the future. I like to collect the facts, consider what is possible based on past experience and future projection. I like to feel prepared and confident in my choices by developing a calculated outline that will challenge me, but that I can believe in based on hard work and focus. I take great pride in reaching self defined checkpoints and crave goals to focus my aim on and to provide a feeling of progression and growth.

To make the strengths even more evident lets take the generalization a step further. I am future focused and self motivated. I am able to decisively choose a desired outcome, create a structured plan and outline a method to achieve it. I am fueled to confirm improvements consistently through progressive checkpoints. I like to feel capable, prepared, flourishing, and justify myself through concrete examples of my successful pursuits. I like to get things done and present them as proof of the value of my time and the power of my efficient expenditure of energy.

Ultimately I think that I am best suited for a position managing, directing, promoting, or developing projects and strategies. I would take a lot of pride and gladly invest myself personally in the success of a project. I would be able to focus and motivate others along with me in my drive for completion. I think being in a position that I can feel the impact of my work is vital to my happiness at work and could be achieved in a variety of directing positions.

Today in my finance class we were talking about the New York Stock Exchange and how it's function is completely symbolic in nature. Only 10 years ago around 3,000 brokers and specialists populated the exchange floor, today that number is down around 1,000 brokers.

This is mostly due to the fact that technology allows trades that used to made physically (then by telegraph and later by phone) to now be done instantly via internet.

What is boils down to now is the New York Stock Exchange being the crumbling and chaotic symbol of American capitalism as our ecomony's health careens, jumping and diving uncontrollably from moment to moment. This spastic nature is reflected and projected further by enormous fluctuations in stock prices that we can no longer trust to relate to our financial future and safety. A pattern can no longer be derived in this tormoil and we are left without a link to predict what could possibly be coming next.

American's budget $50 million a year in security alone for the New York Stock Exchage to remain as a nostalgic image flowing live on the morning news and as a symbol of the hegemonic prosperity of American capitalism that we wish to portray to the world. Nearly $1 million a week of government money for a space on Wallstreet that may be more functional and profitable as the newest sight for the next Subway or KFC.

Nothing that is done at the exchange can not be done via internet, from absolutely anywhere. So why do we keep the physical location of the exchange and continue a practice which has been outdated and has thus been proven useless? Nearly every other country has shut down their exchange floors in the realization that they were costly, no longer necissary, and the ideal sight for a terrorist attack.

Why does ours remain? Is the image so powerful that we truely need it? Is this symbol of capatilsm so innate to the American way that we can not do without?

Update

Track season has been going pretty well. We are 4 meets in (Frank Haskin's Invite ~ Steeple 11:14, NWC Preview ~ 1500 5:57/800 2:28, L&C Invite steeple 11:07, Linfield Icebreaker ~ 10k 36:20) The link below is a video of the bell lap of the icebreaker 10k. A 1:30 PR and a :50 school record... hopefully also a nationals qualifying time. (fingers crossed!!) Please enjoy the shot of my assistant coaches month old baby girl Phoebe Joy at the end of the clip. Greg's wife Stephanie was kind enough to take some filmage of the races and the link is from her collection. I have also included a photo taken during the Frank Haskin's duel meet with George Fox during the 3k steeple. The water was cold.



School has also been going well. I am anxious to get my midterm grades back this week and see how they turned out. We will be registering for next fall in 2 weeks already! Signing up for my senior year classes! That is crazy! I need to take one more biology class to complete my minor and then I believe the rest will all be business classes towards my major from here on out. It will be nice to be completely through with all of more core liberal arts credit requirements. The other thing that has got me a little bit concerned for next year it housing. It sounds like my friend who is currently doing a study abroud in Mexico may also be in a solo situation so we might be getting a little apartment off campus or something, which sounds awfully nice and peacefull after sharing this big ol' house with 9 people all year. I am really hoping that will come through!

http://sharing.theflip.com/session/0ee4016f8e9ab1e89e951b3b9042e0c5/video/3392572

I have also been lucky enough to have a couple of interviews for summer internship possibilities. During spring break I got to meet with Taylor Cropper of BioSkin Inc (the 9th biggest employer in Ashland). It was a really fun experience. While I was in I had the chance to watch a couple of the employees work on a proto-type backbrace. The three of them really feed off of eachother and showed a lot of creativity and ingenuinity in trying to piece together the project before they were to fly it out for a early showing later that day. While speaking with Taylor he mentioned to me a blog by Seth Godin, a "marketing guru", (http://sethgodin.typepad.com/)... I had been speaking with Jen about different marketing ideas for their business and thought that his blog might be an interesting place to read about. He had mentioned that from reading the blog earlier recently Seth discusses your "presense" on the internet. Something interesting to consider... what kind of reputation do you have following you based on advertisements or interactions or publications that are associated with your name? Even for example what to people associated about a Phoenix High grad? or what about a runner?

Well, it's back to school/work/intern/training for me. Spring break was restful. It was great to see my family and I had a nice couple days in Newport with Chris. But, I am feeling ready to get back to work... which is a nice feeling to have. Looking FORWARD to training and learning instead of dying for a rest. Let's hope this feeling lasts til summer... or at the very least a couple of weeks. :)

Enjoy your day!